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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 04 2000

EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISRUPTED THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT...AND HALTED THE
DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WAS NOTED EARLIER.  THERE ARE STILL SOME
BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS LESS SO.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

MORNING VISUAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOT AS FAR WEST
AS EARLIER ESTIMATED.  INITIAL MOTION IS REDUCED TO 290/5.  EVEN
THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF OLIVIA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE IS
RATHER WEAK.  ONLY A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. 
THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO
THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL LOCATION.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 16.0N 106.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.3N 107.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.8N 109.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    65 KTS
 
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