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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
IR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE FORMATIVE EYE OBSERVED
EARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT BUT THERE ARE STRONG CONVECTIVE CELLS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY
INCREASE...THE WATER IS WARM SO...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...NONE OF INTENSITY
MODELS BRING THE WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT I PREFER NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT T HIS
TIME. 
 
OLIVIA IS MOVING 285/07...A LITTLE BIT FASTER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN
FACT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING  OF THE RIDGE
BY TURNING OLIVIA TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 15.9N 106.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 16.1N 107.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 109.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 112.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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