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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000

DESPITE THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...OLIVIA HAS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.  A CURVED BAND WRAPS AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  DATA AND FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE...55 KNOTS.  SSM/I DATA INDICATED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL.  OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
EARLY TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...280/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS REGIME
WOULD MAINTAIN A WEST- TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 15.5N 104.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N 105.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 106.1W    70 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 110.5W    75 KTS
 
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