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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 21 2000
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN HAS REMAINED OVER WATER AND IS MOVING
FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST.  NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND BE INLAND AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND VERY
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

LAND INTERACTION IS STILL INHIBITING ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION.  UNTIL
NORMAN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NO
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  DUE TO SOME CONTINUED LAND
INTERACTION...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT NORMAN WOULD STRENGTHEN TO MUCH
ABOVE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

HOWEVER...NORMAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM
THESE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO
PUERTO VALLARTA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 20.9N 105.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 106.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 22.4N 107.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N 107.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 108.5W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
 
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