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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 20 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS
INLAND AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT NORMAN HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.
EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF
MAJOR FLOODING FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES.  WHILE IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY EMERGE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IN
A DAY OR SO...THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE SO DISRUPTED BY THE
MEXICAN TERRAIN BY THAT TIME THAT A COMEBACK IS NOT LIKELY. 
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER SOONER THAN
EXPECTED...THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE.  

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...310/4.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 18.7N 103.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.1N 104.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N 104.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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