HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 20 2000
 
EVEN WITH RAPID-SCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS HARD
TO LOCATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS
MOVING 360/2 AND IS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB. 
THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY
SUGGESTING SOME KIND OF WESTWARD TURN.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
THIS WILL HAPPEN BEFORE THE STORM GETS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
DISSIPATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
NORMAN WILL CONTINUE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND. 

NORMAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTION...AND IF THE CENTER
WERE NOT NEAR THE COAST IT WOULD PROBABLY STRENGTHEN.  WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC...ALL BETS ARE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
 
WITH THE SLOW MOTION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 18.2N 103.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.6N 103.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 103.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN