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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 20 2000

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE DEPRESSION IS VERY
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT
IS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE VERY INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.   

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE NORTHWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 OR
3 DAYS.  THE SLOW MOTION COULD RESULT IN TORRENTIAL RAINS..LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 17.3N 103.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 103.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 103.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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