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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 19 2000
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND HAS DEVELOPED
INTO TROPICAL SIXTEEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED AND IS MORE CIRCULAR...AND THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -85C TO 
-88C ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH AT 2 KT. 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK RIDGING TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED LOW AND ALSO
POSSIBLY KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SOME LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHICH MAY ACT TO DISRUPT THE
INFLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  HOWEVER...THE WATER IS
SUFFICIENTLY WARM...ABOVE 29C...FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY
IN 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY FASTER AND ALSO BE STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INDICATING.  OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.9N 103.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.2N 103.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.2N 104.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 104.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W    60 KTS
  
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