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TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2000
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS MIRIAM LOST MOST OF HER DEEP CONVECTION AND
THEN REGAINED SOME OF IT WITH A BURST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS STILL MAINTAIN A 40 KNOT SYSTEM. 
HOWEVER...QUICKSCAT WIND ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE WIND
MAXIMUM IS SOMEWHAT LESS.  THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/9...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 22.9N 109.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 23.9N 110.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 25.1N 112.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 27.2N 116.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 28.8N 119.9W    20 KTS
 
 
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