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TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL BAJA WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE CERTAINTY OF THE CENTER. 
THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  WEAKENING
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER
WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 315/5...SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SPEED.  THE DIRECTION INDICATES THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE PREDICTING IN PREVIOUS
PACKAGES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 21.6N 108.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 22.1N 109.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 110.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.6N 111.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.7N 112.9W    30 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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