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TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM WITH
RAGGED CONVECTION.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL BAJA APPEARS
TO BE PRODUCING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
STILL SUPPORT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/8.  THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER
BAJA...WHICH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTS AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH...IS PRODUCING A MOVEMENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS STILL LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 21.9N 108.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 23.0N 108.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 110.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 25.0N 112.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N 118.5W    25 KTS
 
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