HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS STILL NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN BAJA.  LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA TO MOVE
WESTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE HEADING OF
MIRIAM TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER VERY NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 21.1N 108.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 22.7N 109.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 23.8N 111.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN