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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2000
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY IN THE DISTURBANCE OFF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. SHORT BANDED FEATURES CLEARLY DEFINE
THE CENTER...AND TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED T-NUMBERS OF 2.0...30
KT...AT 18Z. SHIP REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. THESE OBSERVATIONS
ARE USED IN UPGRADING THE DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E.
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED STEADILY TOWARD THE NW TO NNW AT ABOUT 10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED NEAR LOS MOCHIS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FUTURE TRACK. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...
AND AVN HAVE SIMILAR...FASCINATING...EVOLUTIONS. THEY APPEAR TO
SPLIT THE LOW IN THE VERTICAL WITH THE 500 MB COMPONENT MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST TO WSW...AND THE 200 MB PART OPENING UP AND MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. TRACK MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION WRAPPING
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL PORTION...TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG HIGH OFF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL TRACKS HEAD NNW-NW AT
FIRST...THEN BEND TOWARD THE WNW BY THE END OF THE 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH WARM
WATER ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE A
TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF 24N LATITUDE.
FORECASTER RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.6N 107.7W 30 KTS
12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.9N 108.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 22.6N 109.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 17/0600Z 23.9N 111.1W 45 KTS
48HR VT 17/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W 45 KTS
72HR VT 18/1800Z 27.0N 116.0W 40 KTS
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