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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 11 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AND WEST OF CALIFORNIA THAT SHOULD CAUSE
LANE TO RECURVE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS
FAST AS THE FASTEST MODELS...BAM DEEP AND MEDIUM AND THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA IN 72 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES MOVING LANE OVER COLD WATER AND
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WAS 60 KNOTS.  BY 72 HOURS...ONLY A LOW
LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND THIS SWIRL SHOULD
NOT MOVE AS FAST AS FORECAST BY THE FASTEST MODELS.  EVEN THOUGH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CALIFORNIA...SOME OF THE
ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 23.4N 119.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 24.2N 121.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N 123.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 28.5N 123.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 32.5N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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