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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 11 2000
 
THE APPEARANCE OF LANE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE
STILL 4.0 SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT FOR NOW...BUT LANE
WILL NOT BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS BUT NOT QUITE AS QUICKLY
AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LARGE
CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN...BUT LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT SOONER.
 
MOTION REMAINS 300/10.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY NEAR 35N122W...TO MOVE TO THE 
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF LANE.  CONSISTENT WITH
THESE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  

MOISTURE FROM LANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.7N 119.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 24.9N 121.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 26.5N 122.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 28.0N 123.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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