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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 11 2000

THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED ON BOTH IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70
KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...LANE IS APPROACHING 25 DEG C OR COOLER WATERS. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LARGE CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN...BUT
LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT
SOONER.

MOTION IS 300/10.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY NEAR 35N122W...TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF LANE.  CONSISTENT WITH THESE CHANGES
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SHALLOW-LAYER BAM...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.     
 
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 22.4N 117.2W    70 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 23.2N 118.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N 120.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N 122.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 30.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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