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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000
 
HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD
TOPS IN THE EYEWALL...AND ALSO BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
SYMMETRICAL WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
GRADUALLY ERODE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE
AS A TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTS
EASTWARD.  ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TAKING LANE MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE LONE OUTLIER IS THE
UKMET MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.  IF LANE
WEAKENS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN THE
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST
BY THE SURFACE-BASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET
SOLUTION.

HURRICANE LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY
48 HOURS BE OVER 20C SST WATER.  THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN MAY
HELP TO OFFSET THE WEAKENING PROCESS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
NOTE...SOME MID- AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LANE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 21.9N 116.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 22.4N 117.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.3N 119.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 24.3N 120.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N 122.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 28.5N 123.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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