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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000
 
HURRICANE LANE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON INSPITE OF THE 60NM DIAMETER EYE...AND DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
85 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 TO 85 KT FROM
ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF 5.0...OR 90
KT...FROM KGWC.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IMPROVING
TO THE NORTHWEST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IN TAKING LANE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTERWARDS AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE UKMET MODEL.
 
WITH SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE HURRICANE TRACKS OVER
25C SST WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTERWARDS
THAN SHIPS IS INDICATING.
 
NOTE...DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF HURRICANE LANE...SQUALLS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HIGH SEAS AND POUNDING SURF CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ALONG BOTH COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF 25N LATITUDE.  HIGH SEAS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY NORTH OF MANZANILLO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 20.8N 113.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.8N 114.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 116.4W    85 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.8N 118.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N 124.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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