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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LANE HAS BECOME BETTER WRAPPED AROUND THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL
55 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE.  THIS IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS NEAR 13Z.  THIS DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT LANE
HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE 34 KT WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY EXPANDED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND LARGE-
SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF LANE?  THE AVN SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAN 6 HR AGO...AND SOME OF THE AVN-
BASED GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE LEFT OF THEIR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.  SINCE LANE SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE LEFT
OF THAT TRACK.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...AND NOW
THAT LANE IS FINALLY GETTING ORGANIZED IT SHOULD REACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 HR.  STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 16.7N 109.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.3N 109.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.3N 110.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.4N 111.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 112.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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