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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000
 
A LARGE COLD CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IT
IS NOT POSSIBLE TO KNOW FROM INFRARED IMAGERY IF A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR OR BENEATH THE CDO.  A
RECENT SSMI PASS IN INCONCLUSIVE AND SO IS NIGHT2 INFRARED IMAGERY. 
HOWEVER THE CDO IS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT I AM UPGRADING LANE TO A
35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC
ARE IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE BUT I AM RELUCTANT TO GO THAT HIGH
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING A LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE FORECAST IS
TO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL
FORECASTS EVEN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.

WITHOUT A CENTER TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE
STATIONARY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST A MOSTLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH A SLIGHT AND
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  IT IS HARD TO SEE WHERE THE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IS COMING FROM AS THERE IS A HIGH DUE NORTH OF
LANE AND A TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN
ANY CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FURTHER TO THE LEFT
SUGGESTING A DECREASING THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 15.5N 108.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 108.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 108.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 17.6N 109.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 109.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W    65 KTS
 
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