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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2000
 
THE CIRCULATION OF LANE POPPED OUT FROM BENEATH THE CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPLETED ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF A
REVOLUTION AROUND THE CENTER OF A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH EVERY IMAGE.  THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY
WITHIN THE LARGER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  TO AVOID POTENTIAL
CONFUSION...AND BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SORT OF
VORTEX WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN...WE WILL HANG
ON TO LANE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE BROADER
LOW CONSOLIDATES INTO A TRUE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

THE CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS OR MORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET. 
GIVEN THE LARGE AMBIENT VORTICITY...CONVECTION...AND WARM WATER...IF
A TRUE CIRCULATION SURVIVES IT WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 15.0N 108.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.6N 108.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.8N 108.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 109.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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