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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2000
 
BASED ON A BANDING FEATURE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
NOW 40 KNOTS.  ASSUMING THAT SHEARING WILL NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY
STRONG... GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE
STRENGTHENING... BUT THAT MODEL HAS OFTEN HAD A POSITIVE BIAS IN ITS
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS.

LANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/6.  ASSUMING THIS MOTION
CONTINUES THE STORM WILL COMPLETE ITS LOOP OVER ITS FORMER TRACK. 
THE HEADING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH TIME...AS PER THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO SOUTHERN BAJA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA.  EVEN THOUGH MOST OF OUR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE
TROUGH FEATURE COULD STEER LANE MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THAT IS WHAT IS
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 14.9N 107.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 19.3N 107.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 109.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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