HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2000

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
BANDING FEATURES.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF A BURSTING MASS OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AN
OBSERVATION FROM THE VESSEL ELXZ7 WHICH REPORTED WEST WINDS OF 30
KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.0 MB ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER.  THERE IS NOW SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND THIS IS PROBABLY RETARDING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. 
HOWEVER IT IS NOT BELIEVED THAT THE SHEAR...WHICH IS ABOUT 20
KNOTS...WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE
IN A DAY OR SO.

CENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION
HAS SLOWED EVEN FURTHER...TO AROUND 6 KNOTS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT LANE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH 120W LONGITUDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WITH THIS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING VERY
FAR TO THE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE DIVERGENT...BUT THE U.K.
MET...GFDL... AVN..AND NOGAPS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN ERRATIC
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY TAKES
LANE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 15.1N 108.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.8N 110.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.7N 111.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.8N 111.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 113.5W    75 KTS

NNNN