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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2000
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE
THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE SOLIDLY SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...A SHIP WITH
CALL SIGN VRUZ9 REPORTS 12 KNOT WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  IT
IS PRESUMED THAT THIS OBSERVATION WAS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT IT DOES CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...AND
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON THE IMAGES...IT IS BEING
NAMED ON THIS ADVISORY.  CONDITIONS FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
AND LANE WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.
 
THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS IN THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z AVN RUN SINCE IT SHOWS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO FAR SOUTH.  IN ITS FORECAST...IT SPINS
UP A SECONDARY STORM ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF LANE.  WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THE MODEL PULLS LANE NORTHWARD.  HOPEFULLY THIS PROBLEM
WILL BE RESOLVED WITH A RELOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.  IN ANY EVENT...A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF LANE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 16.0N 107.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 109.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 114.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N 117.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    80 KTS
 
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