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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2000

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES AND STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED.  OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
TO THE NORTHEAST.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...ABOVE 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE
RATE SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...SHIPS.

MOTION IS WNW...285/13.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO MEXICO. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 16.2N 105.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 107.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.3N 112.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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