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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED FROM DEEP
CONVECTION AND KRISTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS
BASIS. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE
REINTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FORECASTS
NO CHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE CENTER IS RELOCATED BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE GUIDANCE MODELS MOSTLY SHOW A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS WHICH
ACELLERATES KRISTY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 T 12 KNOTS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTS FOR THE SLOWER MOTION SINCE THE 12Z AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS CONTINUING NEAR KRISTY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 14.3N 133.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.4N 133.6W 30 KTS
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W 30 KTS
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.7N 134.7W 30 KTS
48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 135.5W 30 KTS
72HR VT 05/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W 30 KTS
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