[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED FROM DEEP
CONVECTION AND KRISTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS
BASIS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE
REINTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FORECASTS
NO CHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THE CENTER IS RELOCATED BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS MOSTLY SHOW A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS WHICH
ACELLERATES KRISTY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 T 12 KNOTS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTS FOR THE SLOWER MOTION SINCE THE 12Z AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS CONTINUING NEAR KRISTY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 14.3N 133.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.4N 133.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N 134.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N 135.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN


Problems?