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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000
 
KRISTY HAS LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW
CELLS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND SOME BANDING
FEATURES HAVE EMERGED.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 290/4.  IT APPEARS THAT KRISTY HAS
FINALLY DECIDED TO START MOVING AGAIN IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR
WESTWARD DIRECTION.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THERE MAY BE LARGE WOBBLES IN THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN CONSOLIDATES
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND AVN MODELS.

KRISTY APPEARS TO BE WELL AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER 27C
SSTS...AND INSULATED FROM ANY MAJOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.  THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIFOR AND SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...BUT KRISTY REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER
TODAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 13.6N 134.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.9N 134.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.3N 135.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N 137.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N 139.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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