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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THIS IS ALSO
SUGGESTED BY A RECENT TRMM PASSAGE OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOWS A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  

KRISTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING DAY AND BECAUSE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAK...LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 13.0N 133.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 133.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 134.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N 135.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 137.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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