HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000
 
THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13-E FADED AWAY AND WAS REPLACED BY A SECOND BURST SOUTH OF THE
POORLY DEFINED CENTER.  THIS BURST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
THE PREVIOUS BURST...WITH A WEAK BANDING PATTERN AROUND THE CENTER. 
HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT...SO THE   
MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS ADVISORY WILL BE UNCHANGED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  ONE
ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THAT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXISTS
JUST SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM STATIONARY.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...WITH
MANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL TENDENCIES CONTINUING ON THIS PACKAGE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.  THERE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOHN...CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 575 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13-E.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT INCLUDE
THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
 
THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES THIS WILL HAPPEN AND CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK INTO
GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 13.6N 133.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N 133.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 14.4N 134.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N 135.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 138.5W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN