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WTPA42 PHFO 312100
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 31 2000
 
ALL OF JOHNS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF EXPOSING THE WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ITS MOVMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO BE
GUIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  WE PREFER A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD PATH IN CONTRAST TO NEARLY 360 DEGREE
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARRAY. SYSTEM SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASED FROM THE
CURRENT SLOW 5 KNOST TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF 72 HOURS.
MATSUDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 17.3N 142.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N 143.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.1N 144.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.2N 146.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 17.1N 149.9W    25 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 17.2N 156.1W    25 KTS