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TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...JOHN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS RAGGED-LOOKING AND THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
MAY BE DUE TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING OVER THE SYSTEM.  NO
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND...IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...JOHN MAY WEAKEN MUCH SOONER THAN WE HAD
ANTICIPATED.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4...WHICH IS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A STEERING
CURRENT TO MOVE JOHN WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL RUN.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 16.5N 139.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N 140.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 141.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.0N 141.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W    50 KTS
 
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