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288 
WTPZ42 KNHC 291432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000

JOHN REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED STORM WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH THE DVORAK T NUMBER
HOLDING AT 3.5...I.E. 55 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE BEING AFFECTED BY INCREASING
SHEAR.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4 AS BEFORE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOHN BEING
ERODED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.  THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 16.3N 139.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 140.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 141.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 143.5W    50 KTS