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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000
 
ILEANA CONTINUES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 50
KNOTS.  ILEANA STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO PRODUCE A FEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER.  THEREAFTER...A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN.
 
ILEANA IS MOVING 280 ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE
NORTH TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SAME TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...ILEANA SHOULD WILL PROBABLY BE A SHALLOW
SYSTEM AND MOVES MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 22.7N 113.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 115.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 117.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.5N 120.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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