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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 2230Z
CONFIRMED THIS.  THIS INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS STILL BEING
AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING...BUT
THIS MAY BE ONLY A DIURNAL OSCILLATION.  NONETHELESS...BECAUSE OF
THE CONTINUED SHEARING...NO STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS ILEANA MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF 115W
LONGITUDE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA...SO A
CONTINUED SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST.  THE
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 120W IN 2-3
DAYS...SO A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN
AS WELL.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 22.4N 112.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 22.7N 113.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.1N 115.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 117.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 120.5W    45 KTS
 
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