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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ILEANA IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE GOOD
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN SOME BANDS TO THE WEST.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION UP TO 06Z WAS 320/10.  HOWEVER...THE MOTION SINCE
THAT TIME MAY BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE AVN...ARE HINTING THAT THE RIDGE NORTH OF ILEANA MAY
BE WEAKER THAT FORECAST EARLIER...AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO
THIS WITH MORE NORTHERLY FORECAST TRACKS THAN 6 HR AGO.  THE BIGGEST
CHANGE IS IN THE NHC91E...WHICH HAS SHIFTED FROM A 72 HR POSITION
20.5N115.5W 6 HR AGO TO 29N117W NOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N118W WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO THE
WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE
WHICH INCLUDES THE BAMD...NGPI...AND THE GFDL.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING GUIDANCE AND THE POSSIBLE MORE
WESTERLY MOTION.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  ILEANA SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM MOVES INTO
COLDER WATER IN ROUGHLY 36 HR.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING
UNTIL THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 21.8N 108.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 22.7N 110.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 23.2N 112.1W    80 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 23.4N 114.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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