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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55
KNOTS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ILEANA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A 75-KNOT HURRICANE AND THIS BASICALLY DONE FOLLOWING
SHIPS FORECAST.  MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION.
 
ILEANA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES ABOUT 10
KNOTS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
THEREAFTER THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE...FORCING ILEANA
TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.   IN THIS FORECAST...HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
BUT ONLY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CORE OF ILEANA MUCH CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
HURRICANE WATCH MAY THEN BE QUICKLY UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 20.2N 107.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 21.1N 109.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N 110.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 22.0N 112.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 118.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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