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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UP TO A 2.5 FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
ACCORDINGLY THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA. 
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE STORM IS MOVING
OVER WARM WATER...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE SHIPS
MODEL INDICATES EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN SHOWN HERE.

THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT FROM THE CURRENT 305 DEGREE
HEADING.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN SHOWS A TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING ILEANA CLOSE TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 25N115W AT THIS TIME.  IT IS NOT
CERTAIN WHETHER THE GFDL MODEL IS RESPONDING TO THIS FEATURE OR NOT.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL
TRACKS...BUT A BIT SLOWER.  THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.

ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 18.0N 105.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N 106.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 109.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W    55 KTS
 
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