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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
HECTOR HAS LOST ALL OF ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
...AS A RESULT...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER...HECTOR SHOULD MAINLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.

HECTOR SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD
BE FOR STEADY WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE WIND FIELD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 20.5N 122.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.7N 124.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.8N 125.9W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.1N 130.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 
 
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