HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

IMAGERY NOW SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  MORE OF
THE LOW CLOUD LINES ARE BECOMING EXPOSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  AN EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
PICTURES...BUT AN SSM/I IMAGE FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTED
A 10-15 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  THE DEEPER CLOUDS WERE ALSO DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE CENTER ON THAT IMAGE...IMPLYING SHEAR.  HECTOR IS
STARTING TO BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A STABLE AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

HECTOR IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...310/7...
APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE AVN MODEL INDICATES SOME BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SO THE FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MEDIUM TO SHALLOW BAM TRACKS...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST.  THIS IS JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 20.2N 120.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.9N 121.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W    25 KTS
 
 
NNNN