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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000

HECTOR APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A BANDING-TYPE EYE WITHIN AN
IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS OR MINIMAL HURRICANE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEREAFTER...HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKEN 

HECTOR IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF HECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  HECTOR SHOULD INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE
GENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 18.2N 118.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.2N 119.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 121.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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