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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
A GOOD BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH.

INITAL MOTION IS 255/06. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HECTOR HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO EASTERLY...WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO STEER HECTOR ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER 36 HOURS.

THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY HOSTILE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DEEP CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES HECTOR UP TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS...AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
TREND...ALTHOUGH A BREIF INTENSITY OF 70 KT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS BELOW 25C.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.9N 117.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.9N 119.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.1N 121.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 123.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N 128.0W    50 KTS
  
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