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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
..COR FOR POSITIONS
 
HECTOR HAS DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  T-NUMBERS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING SO...THE WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
HECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD.  THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 18.5N 116.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N 117.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 122.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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