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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AS
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER.  A SHIP
WITH CALL SIGN C6RHB REPORTED 31-KNOT WINDS ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...A
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY AROUND THE SYSTEM...
YIELDING A DATA T NUMBER OF 2.5.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE
AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES
GOOD.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE LIMITED BY THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT... EXPERIMENTAL
SST ANALYSES FROM NOAA/NESDIS INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS MOVING OVER
A COOL WAKE PRODUCED BY EMILIA AND GILMA.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO A
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TRACK IS THE MOST REASONABLE
FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL
NHC91.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 18.7N 113.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.1N 115.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.7N 120.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.8N 122.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W    60 KTS
 
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