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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND
HINT THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 35 KT...30 KT...
AND 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THAT
CHANGE IS A SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR...WHEN
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS.  ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE...THAT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 18.3N 112.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 116.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.9N 118.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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