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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY
AND THE CENTER APPEARS ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH SO THAT MOST OF THE
LOCATION ERROR COULD BE IN THE NORTH SOUTH DIRECTION.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...270/14.  THE
11/00Z AVIATION MODEL BUILDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK. 
THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE OTHERS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT
A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 36 HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER BUT IT IS
ELONGATED AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW STORM
STRENGTH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE SHIPS MODEL SINCE THE GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 60 HOURS AND THE
UKMET ALSO CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING.

THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER LARGE AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THIS BASIS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 17.7N 110.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 112.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 116.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 121.0W    65 KTS
  
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