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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 10 2000

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS...ROUGHLY
THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  GILMA
IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 24 DEG C...AND IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
AND MOTION IS ABOUT 305/06.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OR PROGNOSTIC REASONING.  THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF
GILMA.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO THE LEFT. 
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PATH FOLLOWED BY THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM
MODEL...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 22.2N 122.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 123.3W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.3N 124.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/1800Z 23.7N 126.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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