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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 09 2000

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...AND 25 KNOTS FROM AFWA.  GILMA HAS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
LINGERING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING IN A
DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES HEADING INTO COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/07.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A
GRADUAL FILLING IN OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GILMA.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THIS IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE CONSENSUS
OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODELS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 22.0N 122.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.6N 122.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 23.2N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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