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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 09 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THERE IS A 500 MB LOW NEAR
CALIFORNIA WHICH HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO GILMAS NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  BUT THE AVIATION AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUCH THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN GILMA
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS
THIS GUIDANCE BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. 

GILMA IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING...SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE WIND SPEED IS
DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS.  GILMA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 21.4N 121.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 122.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 123.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.1N 124.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     11/1800Z 23.6N 126.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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