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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 09 2000

2-CHANNEL COMBINATION IR IMAGERY AND SSM/I DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION.  THUS THE CURRENT
ADVISORY POSITION IS A RELOCATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A STEERING
CURRENT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH
A GRADUAL BEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.

DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AND CURRENTLY DIMINISHING.  GILMA IS
MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25 DEG C. 
THEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 20.9N 120.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.4N 122.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.0N 123.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.5N 125.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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