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HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000
 
GILMA HAS APPARENTLY PEAKED...AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 70 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THAT
MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GILMA IS MOVING 285/8
AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...NOGAPS...AND NHC91.

GILMA IS MOVING OVER 25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND APPEARS TO BE
ENTRAINING STRATOCUMULUS.  SINCE THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO
THE SST GRADIENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW BUT
STEADY WEAKENING.  IF GILMA MOVES MORE TO THE NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 19.4N 119.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 19.7N 120.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.2N 122.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.8N 124.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 21.0N 126.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 130.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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